Rebel forces are groups of fighters that resist or rise up against a ruling authority or government, often in an armed conflict. They can be splintered into numerous factions that are loosely affiliated or have full-fledged political structures. They can be supported by foreign backers, and a rebel force often has a clear military policy and tactical objectives. They may be governed by an overall leader or an elected council, and some are subject to laws and treaties like the International Conventions of 1949 for the Protection of Non-Combatants in Armed Conflict or the Geneva Conventions.
Over time, rebels tend to change their tactics during a war. They may rely on irregular warfare such as suicide bombings, ambushes, and hit-and-run attacks early in the conflict and then switch to direct head-to-head engagement with the enemy later. This article explores how and why rebels shift their strategy, the impact of this on peace negotiations, and how they might affect the prospects for an end to the civil war in Syria.
In late 2024, the Syrian rebel group HTS led a quick attack that overran major regime-controlled cities in a matter of days. The attack seemed to exploit seismic shifts that weakened the regime’s core allies, including Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia. Al Jolani publicly broke ranks with al-Qaeda and dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra, renaming the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Despite the emergence of new rebel forces, the overall number of fighters has remained largely constant, at about 100,000. The most important factor in determining their strength is the amount of resources they can raise, especially weapons and ammunition. This enables them to launch more direct attacks in shorter timeframes.