The Ceasefire agreement is a moment of relief and hope for 2.2 million Palestinians living in Gaza. But the deal is not without challenges. And it is far from clear whether it will last the first six weeks, let alone longer.
Even if top leaders want a ceasefire to work, more recalcitrant factions, like right-wing extremists in Israel or hardline factions in Hamas, can still spoil it. And that is a real danger, particularly when mutual mistrust makes the tinder so dry that any spark could cause a sudden conflagration.
One thing that should be done to improve the chances for a long-term ceasefire is setting up communication channels and dispute resolution mechanisms. This will help prevent miscalculations, nip problems in the bud and provide each side with a way to respond to perceived breaches of the ceasefire agreement without risking escalation back to war.
It is also important to keep up pressure on both sides to respect the terms of the agreement, and that the Hague Group continue to play a role in supporting accountability and a political solution that is consistent with international law. And of course, all states with influence in the region should contribute financially to support Gaza’s recovery.
Finally, it is important to understand why this particular agreement was struck now, rather than earlier. It seems obvious that the Israeli right is eager to start with a good impression on the new administration of Donald Trump, and that the US administration was prepared to help make that happen. The administration made it possible for Steve Witkoff, the incoming special envoy to be present at the ceasefire talks, to convey Trump’s messages to Netanyahu. And that proved to be crucial.