About Military coup
On August 30, the Central African Republic’s military seized power in an attempt to end the presidency of President Ali Bongo, and the country remains in a state of turmoil. This marks the fifth military takeover in Africa in the past three years (Niger in July 2023, Burkina Faso in 2022, Chad and Guinea in 2021, and Mali in 2020). In each case, coup leaders have consolidated their dominant political positions after taking power, limiting freedom of speech and suppressing dissent. In addition, insecurity has intensified across large swaths of the region.
Scholarly work on military coups identifies four key elements that shape their success or failure: the armed forces’ capacity to stage a coup, their interest in doing so, a lack of a legitimate opponent, and a degree of popular support. These factors, along with the type of government (parliamentary versus presidential) and patterns of civil-military relations, are important risk factors in coups. But there are also other factors that can help shape outcomes, including the character of outside pressure on coup attempts.
When democratic transitions inherit empowered militaries, it is essential that they negotiate the best deal for democracy by signaling to the military that a coup will be met with a firm response from international actors and that any aid will be suspended. Muddling this message, or even sending different messages (as happened in Egypt in 2013), can exacerbate bargaining problems and trigger a coup.